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《防务技术》2022,18(11):2097-2106
The target's threat prediction is an essential procedure for the situation analysis in an aerial defense system. However, the traditional threat prediction methods mostly ignore the effect of commander's emotion. They only predict a target's present threat from the target's features itself, which leads to their poor ability in a complex situation. To aerial targets, this paper proposes a method for its potential threat prediction considering commander emotion (PTP-CE) that uses the Bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) network and the backpropagation neural network (BP) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Furthermore, we use the BiLSTM to predict the target's future state from real-time series data, and then adopt the SSA-BP to combine the target's state with the commander's emotion to establish a threat prediction model. Therefore, the target's potential threat level can be obtained by this threat prediction model from the predicted future state and the recognized emotion. The experimental results show that the PTP-CE is efficient for aerial target's state prediction and threat prediction, regardless of commander's emotional effect. 相似文献
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现代战争日趋透明给导弹发射车战场生存带来了严峻挑战。围绕发射车的抗毁伤能力分析和评估技术,分析了发射车面临的毁伤威胁和毁伤作用机理,从抗毁伤能力评估应用的角度阐述了冲击波、动能、热和电磁四种毁伤类型的研究现状,提出了不同毁伤类型在抗毁伤能力分析和评估中的应用方向;基于易损性分析空间理论,总结了装备易损性分析的发展历程,认为从物理空间到性能空间的逻辑传递关系是现阶段发射车易损性分析的核心所在,并从物理判据、性能判据和分级标准介绍了易损性判据的研究动态,提出了发射车易损性判据的关键;明确阐述了发射车抗毁伤能力的研究概念和分析方法面临的主要问题,研究结论可以为导弹发射车抗毁伤能力分析和评估相关研究提供参考。 相似文献
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为重塑大国竞争优势,夺取和保持全球主要海区控制权,美国海军在“由海向陆”向“重返制海”的战略转型中,提出了旨在分散对手火力密度、提高对手决策难度的“分布式杀伤”概念。在此概念下,海上小型舰艇编队成为美国及其盟国海军显示前沿存在、争夺海权的重要力量。准确分析和把握美军运用海上小型舰艇编队的政治和军事企图,分析其基本组成、作战任务及主要运用方式对军队来说具有一定的现实意义。本文从“侦”“攻”“防”三个方面简要分析了美军海上小型舰艇编队的电子对抗能力,结合当前海上斗争形势评估了美军海上小型舰艇编队的电磁威胁,并从技术发展、体系建设和理念创新等方面提出军队未来的电子对抗策略。 相似文献
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Deane-Peter Baker 《African Security Review》2013,22(3):54-64
Abstract The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry. 相似文献
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贝叶斯网络下考虑攻击企图的目标威胁评估 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为解决舰艇编队的防空目标威胁评估问题,针对现有威胁评估方法中忽略目标攻击企图,且只进行静态评估而未考虑目标机动导致的运动参数变化对威胁评估的影响之不足,提出了利用目标攻击时所表现出来的特征参数进行攻击企图估计,并分析了影响机动目标威胁程度的相关参数和变量,以目标信息更新周期为不同时间片,建立了用于动态评估目标威胁度的离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络结构模型。为适应编队防空中火力通道多、目标批次多的特点,将一般威胁等级从3级划分扩展为5级划分。给出了网络中主要节点的状态转移概率表和条件概率表。通过对机动目标按照典型攻击航路的威胁度变化仿真表明,所建立的模型和采用的方法合理有效,能够较为准确地反映目标威胁,贴近实战。 相似文献
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